Taxes Are Done and WaveClock Kickstarter Luanches Next Week!

WaveClock is a beautiful piece of art that comes in multiple styles to match the aesthetic of your space. It shows you the data you need to plan your fishing trip, tide pooling, exploration, surf session, or other ocean adventures. In bringing the best technologies to the WaveClock, we are launching a Kickstarter campaign starting May 1st. In the rewards, you’ll find limited edition WaveClocks, custom surfboards, and other unique pieces. We are proud to have excellent collaborators to create rewards. We'll be providing the link to this list as soon as it goes live, so share with your friends! Great Collaborators We working with Santa Cruz artisans including Wetfeet Photography, Ventana Surfboards & Supplies, and PPD Multimedia to provide creative designs and materials throughout the development of the WaveClock. What are the Rewards? In the rewards you’ll find the standard and premium WaveClocks, photo shoot opportunities with Wetfeet Photography, Ventana’s custom wooden surfboards, and other unique equipment in the rewards.

The Holidays are here No matter how we choose to celebrate, the biggest wish from us at the WaveClock to you, is for an amazing time of giving and happiness with friends and family. We hope you're getting a chance to relax and enjoy. On top of that we'd like to bring you fun news from around the world. There is Kelly Slater's new wave park to the continued El Niño, the last few weeks have been exciting.  Central California is expecting waves of 10 ft or greater for the entire next week. It promises waves through the Christmas holiday and hopefully fun waves through the long weekend for everyone. On top of that, continuing rain brings us into drought breaking territory.... enough to wet your whistle, or board as it may be. The CDIP models (right) show steady northwest swell for the Monterey area. Unfortunately, some of these weather systems promise steady strong winds, enough to blow your hair back! Hopefully, you can find a protected spot and enjoy the coast in it's winter glory.

Truly amazing artificial wave. Kelly's collaborators have developed a technology with a moving wedge to generate waves over 100 m long with a perfect shape. Another company with some similar technology is here.  Wooden WaveClocks The wooden WaveClocks are ready to roll.  Showing you real-time updates from your favorite wave buoy and tidal station! Our best designs are here for you. Explore WaveClocks It's not just brewing up to be strong Many scientists are starting to feel that the present conditions could start an even larger and longer scale ocean oscillation leading to more large events. Summary in this article.

Best Places to get your Wave Forecasts

As a surfer, learning the ins and outs of the sources of wave information is like a samurai training with his sword before battle. Like the sword, the information becomes an extension of a surfers body that they can wield without thought. To really get the best out of each surf session, the complete surfer needs to learn these tools so you can tease out the right spots and the right times, just like the samurai heading confidently onto the battlefield.

There are lots (and lots) of resources to look up wave forecasts, nowcasts, and hindcasts. It can be confusing with all of the information flying around with global wave models, wave measurements, surf cams, and surf forecasts for practically every spot on the globe. We're going to review four of the top resources to obtain all of this informational power. It will be up to you to find which suits you best for your future surf adventures.

The first piece of information is what we call the nowcast. The nowcast gives us the most important information on what's happening right now from wave buoys, surf cameras, and other real-time observing systems. You can have the best forecast (a prediction of what will happen in the future) in the world, but it's of limited use in telling you what's going on right now.

The premier resource for real-time wave information in North America is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Yes .. this is going to be a North American and USA-centric article, so I will apologize in advance to our brother and sister surfers in other countries, but I trust you may find some useful tidbits in here. So our first source of information is going to be the NOAA National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).

NOAA NDBC
NOAA maintains buoys across the globe that feed real-time information via satellite and radio to the NDBC. Most everyone is familiar with this system and which wave measurement buoys are closest to them. Check out the previous blog post on how wave measurements are made to learn about what these buoys show. The NDBC website

The NOAA NDBC website has worldwide wave and weather stations to give hourly data. If you are in North America, this should be your goto source for real-time wave information.

Great, but I want to know what's happening tomorrow or next week so I can plan my day! Turns out NOAA also runs one of the most widely used global wave models, WaveWatch III (WW3).  The WW3 model looks at weather systems, winds, and even ice cover across the globe to most accurately simulate how waves are generated, propagate, and finally end up at your spot. Check out the site here. The Navy also maintains similar models for their operations; however, the NOAA modeling generally form the base of all surf forecasts out there.

One final site maintained under primarily public funding is the Coastal Data Information Program hosted (CDIP) by SCRIPPS Institution of Oceanography.  The CDIP site is full of great directional wave measurements, nowcast models based on those measurements, and focused forecasts primarily in California. The group does outstanding work maintaining these real-time resources and its worth a browse around.

The CDIP site maintains real-time data coupled with nowcast and forecast models. The site primarily focuses on the Pacific; however, there is real-time information available at many locations along the United States coasts.

Now let's talk about the dedicated surfing nowcast and forecast sites.  There are literally hundreds of sites out there with one forecast or another claiming to be the best for you. Many are also trying to cram lots ads and products into each page. Let's take a look at a few key ones (in no order of rating) and see what they have to offer for you.

Surfline
Surfline is the big boy of the surf forecast websites, so we'll start there. If you haven't heard about or seen it in one way or another then you're lucky enough to live in the hinterlands of surfing where mass media isn't inundating you. Surfline is evident at almost every contest and surf related event worldwide. They provide updates every few hours predicted for spots all over the USA and many of the top spots on the globe.

Everyone knows Surfline. They provide consistent and reliable surf reports and forecasts.

So how good are they? Surfline runs global and local models similar to WW3 (or modified version thereof) and then run higher resolution models for each cluster of surf spots. For example they will run a forecast for the the Pacific and then use the results offshore of San Diego to model the San Diego coast. The nesting of models provides higher resolution to get a better forecast of how those waves will look at local wave spots.  Based on the directions and periods of the swell, they can provide a forecast for each location. It's a tried and true technique which they back up with local observers to calibrate the forecast.

To top it all off, they have one of the largest surf camera networks on the globe. Its truly and impressive undertaking to get your forecast, real-time, and camera information for your spot all on one page. They employ some top meteorologists and oceanographers to keep it all running.

All praises? Well the downside is you gotta pay for subscription unless you want to watch lots of surf commercials and liberally sprinkled advertisements. Additionally, they tend to be focused on North American surf spots. It's a trade-off, but its made a good resource for a one-stop shopper that just wants to pay and have it on their desktop or smartphone.

Stormsurf 
In a sense, Stormsurf is the opposite end of the spectrum from the biggest "pay" website.  I love these guys because it's clear they have built this site over the years out of a passion for waves. The have setup a completely free resource with minimal advertising that gives you all of the information you need. It is definitely no frills, but the most important building blocks are here including tutorials on how to develop your own forecasts!

Stormsurf offers a compilation of information from real-time sources and QuickCASTs that give an easily viewed daily description of what's on the horizon.  Combined with other free resources, Stormsurf is one of my key "go to" sites.

Stormsurf has a nice coherent presentation of all of the buoys, models, forecasts, and analysis in almost any format you could want. Their "detailed reports" provide excellent commentary on the types of swell in the water and what's coming soon. I've been extremely impressed by the astute discussions of the present El Nino conditions. They have also put together fantastic tutorials on topics from wave and weather basics to how to put together your own surf forecast. All around Stormsurf is an excellent free resource with minimal ads and a large amount of information.  It's not force fed to you like other sites, but the information is also complete. If you spend enough time with their resources, you'll be building your own forecasts in no time.

WetSand

UPDATE  -  WetSand is sadly no longer with us.
WetSand has undergone numerous transformations from simple bar graph forecasts that were elegant in their simplicity to a much fancier "3D" system that was a little slow.  I think they were teamed with, or spawned SwellWatch. Frankly I don't really know, but the 3D system was slow and confusing even to the discerning surfer. Surfing Magazine and Swellwatch have teamed up to maintain that and I am not reviewing it here. However, WetSand  has gone to a very "Hip" format that focuses on their online surf shop and a simple forecast. The forecast is clean and easy to read with only the necessary information.  Even with their online shop, they tend not of overwhelm you with ads.

WetSand has a nice simple interface. It has a "hipster surfer" feel combined with their online shop, but overall is a nice easy interface with basic information. 

The WetSand format for their forecasts is elegant in its simplicity. I personally love their data display, but honestly I don't use it as my primary source as I'm not sure really what's behind their forecast engine. Their online surf shop does have some fun innovative and stylish items that are worth browsing through.

Magicseaweed
UPDATE  -  Magicseaweed has been purchased by Surfstitch, but will remain separate.

For a good comprehensive global view, Magicseaweed must be mentioned.  These guys have done an admirable job with more forecast spots worldwide from anyone else I have found. The format is similar to Surfline and WetSand, and they even have links to some free webcams. Overall, the list of forecasts are less comprehensive in USA than others, but its where I go for the international picture. For a minor monthly fee (a few bucks), they offer all kinds of updates and forecasts.

Magicseaweed has one of the more comprehensive lists of sites internationally.  Their forecasts feature the standard range of information in a simple interface.

The Round Up

All of these folks have great services.  It's really up to you where you want to go. For me, I use free resources like the NOAA websites and Stormsurf for a good analysis. It takes a little more time, but as a surfer it pays to have a better understanding of the ocean through these comprehensive resources. If you're willing to pay for cams, slick interfaces coupled with professional analysis, Surfline is hard to beat.

   

As an aside, the La Jolla Surfing Weather website has been around since the start of good wave information on the web. These guys have a outstanding compilation of links to public and private sources of information. They have links to everything above as well as many sources of information.  It's California centered, but a comprehensive list!

Remember the best source of real-time information is from the NOAA buoys piped straight to your desk on a WaveClock

Check out our Website and our ETSY store for big sales on WaveClocks as well as the newest available items at your fingertips. Enter KSCOKSCO for a 10% discount!

What is the WaveClock??

You have a gazillion gallons of warm water and ...

So just what is happening with El Niño and why should you care??

For hundreds of years along the rocky coasts of Peru, fisherman noticed that about every half dozen years the water would warm up, the fish would go away or die off, and the weather would get stormy. The fishermen didn't know what caused this, but their fathers, grandfathers, and further back knew of these regular changes. Since it always coincided with Christmas time, they named it "The Child", or "El Niño" in reference to the birth of Jesus.

We now have strong evidence that El Niño events have been occurring for over 7,000 years!

In the 21st century we have a much better understanding of what happens that caused this warm water along Peru. One of the reasons we talk about it so much is that it affects the entire Pacific Ocean and well beyond. Scientists can see records of regular El Niños in sedimentary records (the sediment layers in the bottom of the ocean and lakes). We now have strong evidence that El Niño events have been occurring for 7,000 years (Cobb et al., 2013)!

To fully understand El Niño and the changes it brings, we need to understand what a normal year looks like in the Pacific.

Under normal conditions, the winds along the equator blow from east to west. These winds are so regular, that sailing ships would rely on them to sail west along the equator to trade goods and called these winds the "trade winds". The winds also cause the water to move from the east to west along the ocean's surface (Figure 1). Since the equator is also where we have a lot of sun heating the water, the trade winds in the Pacific push this warm water to the west.

Figure 1. Typical conditions in the Pacific Ocean with the trade winds blowing to the west pushing warmer water to the western side of the Pacific. (Image from NASA).

Figure 1 shows the warm water (red) moving to the west due to the trade winds. Two important things happen with this mass of warm water moving west. First, the warm water is generally depleted of nutrients. The critters living in the ocean surface have essentially used up all of the nutrients or they have settled down to deeper water. Under normal conditions the ocean replenishes these nutrients through "upwelling" on the eastern Pacific.  When the mass of warm water moves west, it is replaced by deeper cooler ocean water that has a lot of nutrients.  The upwelling helps cycle nutrients back into the ocean surface and keeps the fish and other ocean creatures happy.

These "normal" conditions are like clockwork. For centuries sailors and fishing communities throughout the pacific documented and relied on these regular currents and winds. Any change from normal conditions created a lot of problems to folks relying on the ocean for food and livelihood.

Every half dozen or so years (two to seven more accurately), the coastal people in Peru and Ecuador would notice large fish kills and a general decrease in all fish populations. As mentioned, it happened regularly enough that they named it El Niño since it typically peaked around Christmas time. So what's happening?

Warm water sticking around in the eastern pacific plays havoc with the entire ocean ecosystem

The trade winds die off and even reverse periodically. There are multiple theories as to why this happens, but still no definite conclusion.  The fact is that it happens, and fairly regularly. The slackened and reversed trade winds stop pushing the warm water west and allow it to "slosh" back to the east. Warm water sticking to the eastern pacific plays havoc with the ocean ecosystem and weather patterns.  Figure 2 below shows El Niño conditions with warmer water on the eastern side. The warm water creates lower pressures due to the rising air and the lower pressures bring moisture aloft to form more clouds and alter the normal jet streams. All in all this typically means wetter and stormier weather!

Figure 2. El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The trade winds have died off and allow warm water to come back to the east side of the Pacific along the coast of the Americas (Image from NASA).

As we saw earlier, the warm water is generally depleted of nutrients. The El Niño conditions allow the warm water to stick around in the eastern Pacific.  The normal upwelling that brings the nutrients back to the ocean surface is shut down. Without these nutrients the critters modify their migration patterns and can even die off resulting in the fish kills the Peruvian fishermen would observe.

The cause of El Niño: Generally slackened trade winds, which normally push warm water to the western pacific, allow warm water to build up along the eastern pacific.

The results of El Niño: Warmer water along the western pacific results in wetter and generally stormier weather along the western pacific basin. The warm water is nutrient depleted which causes many changes in the ocean ecosystem including animal migration alterations and even fish kills.

What's the ocean doing now?

The Office of Satellite and Product Operations at NOAA compiles maps of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) from a number of observational satellites in orbit. You can view these at any time here. The most common way to look for changes or differences in SST is through what's called the anomaly. The SST anomaly is the long term average SST is subtracted from the present SST. A negative value means the ocean is colder than average and a positive value means the ocean is warmer.

Armed with SST anomalies, we can take the first peak at what is happening in the Pacific. If we take a look at September of last year (2014), it gives us something to compare this year with. Figure 3 below is the SST anomaly from the 29th of September 2014. Generally the Pacific was warmer, but its a distribution of warm and cold within a few degrees of normal. Nothing that exciting or alarming. Technically the El Niño conditions we are seeing now started to rear their head in 2014, but all in all we didn't see much of a traditional El Niño effect last winter.

Figure 3. Sea Surface temperature anomaly from January 2015. (Image from NOAA).

Let's catch up to 2015. September 28th, 2015 is plotted  in Figure 4. Compare the amount of red and orange with Figure 3 above. We see a huge mass of water extended from the eastern pacific across the equator.  This water is 3 to 5 degrees C (nearly 10 degrees F) warmer through these areas There is a huge blob of warm water built up in the eastern pacific! This definitely has all the makings of a powerful El Niño.

Figure 4. Sea Surface temperature anomaly from September 2015. (Image from NOAA). 

There is a lot of heat energy there, but it's been slow in building compared to other El Niño's

Scientists called the 1997 El Niño a "super" El Niño. It was devastating to many coastal communities causing landslides and flooding along the eastern coast of the Pacific Ocean and drought and famine throughout other portions of the globe! So how does that factor into the situation setting up presently. Below is a video from NCAR comparing SST anomalies from 1997 and present.  One thing is fairly apparent, the patterns are of similar size and magnitude. While there are many other factors governing how much the El Niño will ultimately affect us, one things is certain, something sizable is setting up. One forecaster has likened it to a slow moving trainwreck. There is a lot of heat energy there, but it's been slow in building compared to other El Niño's. Overall scientists agree it will be a strong one!

We'll continue to monitor and provide regular updates here. Follow our newsletter by signing up at the WaveClock website.  Be sure and check out some of our latest WaveClocks available now on ETSY so you can monitor El Niño this winter in REAL TIME!!

Thanks for reading on and talk to you soon!
Craig


Cobb, K.M., N. Westphal, H. Sayani, E. Di Lorenzo, H. Cheng, R.L. Edwards, C.D. Charles, Highly variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene, Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1228246, 2013.